I've done a little bit of research into the history of the World Cup, and based on the previous 19 tournaments I have predicted who will win, who will be runner up and who will be the top scorer. I trust you'll read this with an appropriate amount of ignorance and naïvity.
Winner
Of the 19 previous World Cups, 6 of them have been hosted in South America. Each and every time there has been a South American host, the winner has also been from South America - thus history giving us a 100% chance of South America providing the winner for this World Cup. In fact, only once when the World Cup has been hosted outside of Europe has a European team been successful (Spain in South Africa '10). It's also worth noting that only twice has a team managed to win two successive World Cups (Italy '34, '38 & Brazil '58, '62) which rules out arguably the strongest European side, Spain.
Because of this, I will automatically whittle the winner down to be one of the following countries;
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Uruguay
The host country of the World Cup has previously won on 6 occasions (Uruguay '30, Italy '34, England '66, West Germany '74, Argentina '78 and France '98)
This is equal to 31.58% of the time. In a competition with 32 teams, I like those odds and so Brazil have to be seriously considered.
Brazil have hosted the tournament once before, and that was when Uruguay won the cup in 1950. They beat Brazil in the final.
Let's have a look at each South American country and their World Cup records;
Argentina - Winner 1978, 1986
Brazil - Winner 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002
Chile - 3rd place, 1962
Colombia - Round of 16, 1990
Ecuador - Round of 16, 2006
Uruguay - Winner 1930, 1950
With this in mind, I am going to take Chile, Colombia and Ecuador out of the running as none of them have won the World Cup before - I appreciate that it is absolutely possible for there to be a unique winner this year, but in order to eliminate some candidates I am ignoring that possibility.
Therefore the winner of the World Cup 2014 will be either Argentina, Brazil or Uruguay.
I am going to rule out Uruguay because they have not won the Cup for 64 years, whereas Argentina and Brazil have won it more recently. It's also worth noting that Uruguay only qualified for the competition via the playoffs, finishing behind all of the other South American qualifiers.
Argentina are well in with a shout. They topped the South American qualifiers and have some of the best players in the world in their squad.
Looking at the head to head record between Argentina and Brazil doesn't give us a clear answer. In 95 games, they have drawn 24 and Argentina have won 36 - meaning Brazil have won 35. There is very little between them.
However, as Brazil have won the cup 5 times previously, and have won it most recently of the South American sides, they are on home soil and generally look like a decent outfit, I hereby declare Brazil as the winners of the World Cup this year!
Runner Up
Uruguay have never lost in the World Cup Final. Brazil and Argentina have both been runner-up on two occasions. However, history suggests that when a tournament is played in South America, the runner up will be from Europe (4 times, 66.66%). In the 9 instances of a South American team winning the World cup, they have beaten European opposition in the Final 7 times (77.77%). Thus, odds are that the Final will consist of one South American team and one European team.
Of the European teams in the competition this year, the team to have reached the most finals is Germany with a grand total of 7 - four times being the runner-up. Thus history suggests that it is most likely for Germany to reach the final, and be beaten once they get there. Holland have never won the World Cup, but have been beaten in the final three times - so if they do well they have a strong chance of being the bridesmaid once more. Italy have reached a total of 6 finals, but tend to win them more often than not at a score of 4-2.
On this basis, your runner up for the World Cup this year will be Germany! For this to occur, however, we would need either Brazil or Germany to finish 2nd in their group as they will be meeting in the Semi-Final otherwise. This isn't entirely impossible as Germany are in the same group as Portugal, who may do well.
Top Scorer
The prize of top goalscorer is an interesting one, as history suggests that the person who scores the most goals tends not to be from a team who compete in the finals. Of the 19 World Cups played, on 4 occasions the overall winner has had the top scorer (1962, 1978, 1982 and 2002), and the runner-up has also had the top scorer on 4 occasions (1930, 1934, 1950, 1954) which means that 11 times out of 19 the top scorer will come from a team who do not play in the final.
Of the two most recent World Cups, the top scorer has been German (Klose in 2006, Muller in 2010) - but as they are in the final this time round, we shall discount them. With this in mind, I'll need to have a look at the top goalscorers from qualifying.
11 Goals - Robin Van Persie (NED), Luis Suarez (URU)
10 Goals - Edin Dzeko (BIH), Lionel Messi (ARG), Oribe Peralta (MEX)
9 Goals - Gonzalo Higuain (ARG), Radamel Falcao (COL), Jerry Bengston (HON)
I'm going to immediately discount the South American teams from this, as they played 6 extra games than those competing in the European qualification process, giving them an inferior goals-per-game ratio.
I'm also going to ignore Oribe Peralta of Mexico and Jerry Bengston of Honduras because the North American qualifying system involves more than the 10 games shown in the final table. In fact, if we look at the goals scored in the final section of qualifying we'll see that Bengston only scored 4 goals, and Peralta 3.
I am going to rule out Uruguay because they have not won the Cup for 64 years, whereas Argentina and Brazil have won it more recently. It's also worth noting that Uruguay only qualified for the competition via the playoffs, finishing behind all of the other South American qualifiers.
Argentina are well in with a shout. They topped the South American qualifiers and have some of the best players in the world in their squad.
Looking at the head to head record between Argentina and Brazil doesn't give us a clear answer. In 95 games, they have drawn 24 and Argentina have won 36 - meaning Brazil have won 35. There is very little between them.
However, as Brazil have won the cup 5 times previously, and have won it most recently of the South American sides, they are on home soil and generally look like a decent outfit, I hereby declare Brazil as the winners of the World Cup this year!
Runner Up
Uruguay have never lost in the World Cup Final. Brazil and Argentina have both been runner-up on two occasions. However, history suggests that when a tournament is played in South America, the runner up will be from Europe (4 times, 66.66%). In the 9 instances of a South American team winning the World cup, they have beaten European opposition in the Final 7 times (77.77%). Thus, odds are that the Final will consist of one South American team and one European team.
Of the European teams in the competition this year, the team to have reached the most finals is Germany with a grand total of 7 - four times being the runner-up. Thus history suggests that it is most likely for Germany to reach the final, and be beaten once they get there. Holland have never won the World Cup, but have been beaten in the final three times - so if they do well they have a strong chance of being the bridesmaid once more. Italy have reached a total of 6 finals, but tend to win them more often than not at a score of 4-2.
On this basis, your runner up for the World Cup this year will be Germany! For this to occur, however, we would need either Brazil or Germany to finish 2nd in their group as they will be meeting in the Semi-Final otherwise. This isn't entirely impossible as Germany are in the same group as Portugal, who may do well.
Top Scorer
The prize of top goalscorer is an interesting one, as history suggests that the person who scores the most goals tends not to be from a team who compete in the finals. Of the 19 World Cups played, on 4 occasions the overall winner has had the top scorer (1962, 1978, 1982 and 2002), and the runner-up has also had the top scorer on 4 occasions (1930, 1934, 1950, 1954) which means that 11 times out of 19 the top scorer will come from a team who do not play in the final.
Of the two most recent World Cups, the top scorer has been German (Klose in 2006, Muller in 2010) - but as they are in the final this time round, we shall discount them. With this in mind, I'll need to have a look at the top goalscorers from qualifying.
11 Goals - Robin Van Persie (NED), Luis Suarez (URU)
10 Goals - Edin Dzeko (BIH), Lionel Messi (ARG), Oribe Peralta (MEX)
9 Goals - Gonzalo Higuain (ARG), Radamel Falcao (COL), Jerry Bengston (HON)
I'm going to immediately discount the South American teams from this, as they played 6 extra games than those competing in the European qualification process, giving them an inferior goals-per-game ratio.
I'm also going to ignore Oribe Peralta of Mexico and Jerry Bengston of Honduras because the North American qualifying system involves more than the 10 games shown in the final table. In fact, if we look at the goals scored in the final section of qualifying we'll see that Bengston only scored 4 goals, and Peralta 3.
The top 5 European goalscorers are therefore the follwing;
11 Goals - Robin Van Persie (NED)
10 Goals - Edin Dzeko (BIH)
8 Goals - Vedad Ibisevic (BIH), Mesut Ozil (GER), Cristiano Ronaldo (POR)
I shall now look at how these players did this season for their club team;
Robin Van Persie - Manchester United - 18 Goals
Edin Dzeko - Manchester City - 26 Goals
Vedad Ibizevic - VfB Stuttgart - 15 Goals
Mesut Ozil - Arsenal - 7 Goals
Cristiano Ronaldo - Real Madrid - 51 Goals
I am going to discount Ibizevic here because there is somebody from the same nation with more goals than he has. I am also going to discount Ozil because of his poor scoring record for Arsenal.
It's now worth considering the World Cup opponents of the remaining three players.
Netherlands are in a group with Chile, Spain and Australia. It will be difficult for them to score a lot against either the reigning World Champions, or the South American team. If Van Persie is going to get a few goals early on, it will be the game against Australia in which he gets them.
Bosnia play against Iran and Nigeria, as well as a strong Argentina side. I can imagine them picking up a few goals against the lower ranked duo and so I am tempted to say that Dzeko will have a good chance of netting the top scorer award. Also if they qualify they will play in the next round against a team from Group H, which isn't a particularly strong group either (France, Switzerland, Ecuador & Honduras).
Portugal play the runners-up-to-be, Germany, as well as Ghana and the USA. They should do well against the Americans, and Ghana won't pose too much of a threat. Ronaldo could pick some goals up early on, and so I believe it'll be between him and Dzeko for the Golden Boot.
So how do I split the two? It's obvious that Cristiano Ronaldo is the better player. Scoring 51 goals in a season is a serious achievement, but his Portugal team finished 2nd in their qualifying group behind Russia with an average of two goals per game. Bosnia won their group and scored an average of 3 goals per game - which makes them more likely to get the goals.
In 110 games for Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 49 times - this works out as a goal in 44.54% of his games played for the national side.
In 66 games for Bosnia, Dzeko has scored 33 times. He has scored in 50% of games played.
There really isn't a lot to split the two, so I shall look at their respective teams World Cup history. In doing this, we have to consider Bosnia & Herzigovina as 'Yugoslavia' otherwise we find that they have never qualified for the World Cup - having only been legible since 1994.
Both Portugal and Yugoslavia have had a top scorer in the competition once;
In 1962, Yugoslavian Drazan Jerkovic was the joint top scorer. The competition was held in Chile and the winner of the competition was Brazil.
In 1966, a chap by the name of Eusebio did pretty well for Portugal and claimed the top scorer award. The winner of this competition was England, who were also the home nation.
As Brazil are going to win this tournament and it is being held in South America, mirroring the outcome of the 1962 World Cup - I hereby declare Edin Dzeko as the top scorer of the upcoming tournament!
1st Place - Brazil
Runner Up - Germany
Top Goalscorer - Edin Dzeko
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